If we look at the economic tea leaves for the remainder of 2009, here's what economists are generally predicting:
The worst is over! The economy is transitioning from a steep recession to recovery. Let's hope they are right on this one. Here's a break down of their projections:
- Jobs - Unemployment, currently in the 9% range, will creep up to double digits in the 10+ range. There appeared to be a leveling off of initial claims in May, which suggests that yes, people are still losing jobs, but at a slower rate than earlier this year.
- Interest rates - Possibly bad news for homeowners. Even though the Fed is committed to keeping rates low, it looks like they are going up before year end. It certainly appears that they could be up by 1% or 100 basis points.
- Home sales - the free-fall in home prices has stopped, but sales will remain slow.
- Economic growth - The economy shrunk at an annual rate of 5.7% in the first quarter of 2009. Projections are that this is the worst quarterly drop for the year. We should start to see some growth by the fourth quarter.
- The stock market - No matter how we measure the equity markets, they are all up significantly since their March 9 bottom. This is definitely a leading economic indicator.
Good news? Definitely some. We could use some, especially if you are one of the unemployed.
In this tough economy, it can be difficult to maintain a positive outlook, but there are still a lot of positive things happening. So, this week I'm going to give you the top ten things I'm thankful for.
Number 10 - A life in the stock market. It's been up about 20% over the last four weeks. Let's hope it continues. Its success is critical for confidence in our economy and certainly for all of our retirement plans.
Number 9 - Honesty and Integrity. With all the dishonesty that we've seen on Wall Street, let's appreciate the honesty and integrity that we deal with on a daily basis.
Number 8 - Coworkers. I appreciate the people I work with; do the same.
Number 7 - Medical people - Doctors, nurses and support staff. They are there when we need them; let's appreciate them.
Number 6 - Our military both past and present. Their lives are on the line, let's be thankful for their service.
Number 5 - Your health - Nothing is more important. Without it life can be miserable; appreciate good health.
Number 4 - Our country - Freedom is a blessing none of us appreciates enough. We can go to bed without worrying about foreign attacks; not everyone is that fortunate.
Number 3 - Public servants - Police, firemen and yes even government workers.
Number 2 - Your job - Today it's more important than ever. Appreciate it and be thankful. View your job with a renewed commitment.
Number 1 - Friends and family - What can I say? It all starts and ends here.
I'm thankful for your readership!