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Your Money Minute: Blog with Dennis Staaland

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The Worst Is Over

If we look at the economic tea leaves for the remainder of 2009, here's what economists are generally predicting:

The worst is over! The economy is transitioning from a steep recession to recovery. Let's hope they are right on this one. Here's a break down of their projections:

  1. Jobs - Unemployment, currently in the 9% range, will creep up to double digits in the 10+ range. There appeared to be a leveling off of initial claims in May, which suggests that yes, people are still losing jobs, but at a slower rate than earlier this year.
  2. Interest rates - Possibly bad news for homeowners. Even though the Fed is committed to keeping rates low, it looks like they are going up before year end. It certainly appears that they could be up by 1% or 100 basis points.
  3. Home sales - the free-fall in home prices has stopped, but sales will remain slow.
  4. Economic growth - The economy shrunk at an annual rate of 5.7% in the first quarter of 2009. Projections are that this is the worst quarterly drop for the year. We should start to see some growth by the fourth quarter.
  5. The stock market - No matter how we measure the equity markets, they are all up significantly since their March 9 bottom. This is definitely a leading economic indicator.

Good news? Definitely some. We could use some, especially if you are one of the unemployed.

Comments

I wish you were right, but I don't think you are. the news media claims that 80% of the population have a credit score below 700. many of those suffered financial ruin,so they won't be buying any time soon. the other 20% probably already own homes. home sales don't look good. 627,000 more jobs lost last month means more bankruptcies and more foreclosures. the new private sector jobs created are not the higher paying jobs typical of unions which are only strong in the public sector jobs. these public unions are totally oblivious to the fact that the well has gone dry and continue to demand higher wages from a bankrupt state. the beholden pols try to squeaze blood from a stone through massive tax increases, thereby causing more financial strain and ruin. these tax inceases drive out venture capitol necessary to fuel a recovery. stimulas money can perk up the economy short term but will not address the underlying problems. the only way stimulas money can turn things around is through investment in enterprizes who generate more profit than the investment,which any banker should know.the bakken oil reserve comes to mind, just building the necessary refinery capabilty would create many jobs and give opec nations a good reason to think twice about jacking up oil prices. of course timing is everything and before anything like happens this country has to address those pesky baby boomers. the're to old to work,have high cost health issues and are owed one heck of a lot of social security and medicare. plus the're sitting on a lot of paid off real estate. no problem though, all we need to do is have another huge pork laden stimulas bill unwisely invested and that should just about do it for ageing entitlements. we're in a depression and the worst is yet to come
Posted @ Monday, June 29, 2009 8:51 AM by Bill Tinder
Thanks for your comment, Bill. You’re right that it could take some time for the economy to recover completely, but I’m convinced that the recent increase in many of our leading indicators like stock prices, the interest rate spread, and new housing starts is reason to be optimistic. For the readers who aren’t familiar with the different types of economic indicators, here’s a great description from about.com: A Beginner's Guide to Economic Indicators 
 
Does anyone else have a different take on the state of the economy? Go ahead and post your thoughts here.
Posted @ Tuesday, June 30, 2009 3:21 PM by Dennis Staaland
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